Google: Self-Driving Car Tech to be $200B Annual Market, Says Piper

By Tiernan Ray

Piper Jaffray?s Gene Munster today reiterates an Overweight rating on Google (GOOG) stock, and a $935 price target, opining that self-driving cars of the sort the company has researched ?will be one of the next truly game changing mass technologies,? and could be a $200 billion opportunity.

Munster cites U.S. government data suggesting reduction in driver error, and consequent reduction in auto deaths, could be a strong impetus to making the technology broadly available:

We believe the combination of higher safety levels and elimination of idle time are a powerful motivator in introducing a self-driving car solution. First, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), around 32,000 deaths occurred as a result of auto accidents in 2011. We believe autonomous solutions could largely eliminate human error in driving and drastically reduce that number. Second, according to the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, 5.5 billion hours were wasted by Americans sitting in traffic in 2011. The study estimates idle time in traffic cost $121 billion in productive time and fuel. Aside from freeing drivers from idle time driving, we note that self-driving cars also address smaller (but still large) problems like parking and could potentially eliminate parking from cities as cars could feasibly drop off owners and drive out of the city to wait and park. Another option could be shared vehicles, which could eliminate wasted money on under-utilized vehicles.

Munster notes self-driving cars are already legal in Nevada, California, and Florida, and he believes Google is testing upwards of 100 cars in those states. He thinks NHTSA recommendations issued on the matter suggest ?government is acutely aware of self-driving cars and seems to be embracing the technology.?

60 million cars were sold worldwide last year, writes Munster, according to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, and at $3,000 to $5,000 per unit for the computer unit in a self-driving car, the automation market may be worth $240 billion annually.

He sees some semi-automated vehicles on the road by the end of the decade:

While it will likely be 10 years or more before traffic is largely automated, we believe it will be possible to own a self-driving car in the next five years, assuming legality and low cost sensitivity for the owner. We note that GM, BMW, Audi, and Nissan have all made separate comments about the high likelihood of highly automated vehicles by 2020. We believe the Level 3 vehicles, which require some human interaction will become common by the end of the decade, while the Level 4 vehicles, which assume no driver interaction is necessary, will be more common in the middle of next decade.

Google shares today are up $1.61 at $906.70.

Previously: Google: Deutsche Ups Target to $1010 on 2014 View, Sees Q2 In-Line, July 9th, 2013.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/barrons/techtraderdaily/feed/~3/l5q7RVrv0GE/

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